Key Market Trends

🇺🇸📈The U.S. market (Dec 4, 2025)

Risk assets are trading on a “rate-cut priced in” theme. Weak private payrolls (ADP) and other soft labour data have pushed markets to price a high probability of a 25-bp Fed cut at the December meeting, which is supporting equities and pressuring the greenback and yields. 

Equities are near record highs while yields are lower but still elevated.The S&P 500 is trading within a hair of its all-time highs and investors are rotating into rate-sensitive names on the expectation of easier policy; the U.S. 10-year yield is trading around ~4.06–4.10% (range data). 

💵Dollar (DXY) recently pulled back from multi-week highs and now sits in the high-98 to ~99 area, markets are sensitive to final CPI/PCE and Fed guidance. Traders are watching whether DXY breaks decisively lower (which would further help risk assets) or re-tests highs (which would pressure them).

How the DXY is correlating with major FX pairs.

EUR/USD & GBP/USD, inverse correlation to DXY (the usual relationship); USD/JPY, driven heavily by U.S.–Japan yield differential and BOJ policy; commodity pairs (USD/CAD, AUD/USD) respond to commodity & global risk tone.

EUR/USD / GBP/USD: when DXY falls (dovish Fed/cut priced), EUR/USD and GBP/USD tend to rally. The DXY pullback expectations tied to the Fed meeting are a primary short-term driver for upward momentum in EUR and GBP. 

USD/JPY: more nuanced, USD/JPY correlates with U.S. yields and the BoJ’s policy path. Recent reports show the BoJ may be moving nearer to policy normalization (hints of a December hike), which complicates the simple “US yields down → USD/JPY down” relationship because the yen is reacting to both JGB yields and FX flows. Expect USD/JPY moves to be driven by relative yield moves and BOJ communications. 

Note: "watch the DXY 98.8–99.5 band as a short-term regime marker; a decisive break below ~98.8 would open a more extended dollar pullback, while rejection near 100 would re-energize dollar strength".

💵🥇Dollar vs. Gold (XAU/USD)

Gold and DXY are typically negatively correlated (dollar up → gold down) because gold is USD-priced and an alternative store of value. Several market analyses and CME commentary show a meaningful negative relationship historically, but the link has been less tight recently. In 2025 we’ve seen episodes where both gold and the dollar rose together (safe-haven demand + central bank buying). 

Current dynamics: with markets pricing a Fed rate cut, real yields and a softened dollar, this is normally supportive for gold. However, near-term profit-taking and flow dynamics (ETF rebalancing, positioning) can create short corrections, gold slipped on cautious positioning ahead of the Fed while remaining supported on the medium term as an inflation/geo-risk hedge.

"If markets price an imminent Fed cut and real yields fall, gold should be structurally supported; but expect volatility around Fed/PCE/CPI releases and geopolitical headlines which can create sharp intra-day moves".

💵🪙Dollar vs. Crypto (BTC & ETH)

Empirical pattern: crypto (BTC especially) often shows an inverse relationship with the dollar (strong dollar → pressured BTC), but the correlation is time-varying and imperfect. Academic work and market research in 2025 find BTC’s negative coherence with the DXY is lower and more sporadic than for other USD-priced risk assets, BTC can decouple and act on liquidity, on-chain flows, ETF flows and risk appetite. 

Market evidence (recent): analysts and trading desks flagged that a rising DXY contributed to drawdowns in BTC during parts of 2025, while the DXY decline / rate-cut expectations have amplified rallies in BTC and ETH. Still, short-term price action in BTC/ETH is often dominated by ETF flows, leverage/liquidations, and crypto-specific news, not only FX moves. 

Practical implication: don’t rely solely on a DXY → BTC/ETH rule. Use dollar moves as one input (macro liquidity & real yields) plus crypto-specific signals (ETF flows, on-chain reserve changes, options skew). For portfolio hedging, BTC/ETH can provide diversification vs some dollar-driven risks but are not consistent dollar hedges.

Key U.S. economic releases and indicators that will shape volatility & price action near term

1. Federal Reserve decision & press conference (FOMC, Dec 9–10, 2025), market is pricing a high chance of a 25-bp rate cut; Fed language on future cuts, risk assessment, and labour market readings will be the biggest market mover. 

2. Employment data (NFP / payrolls / ADP / unemployment claims), labour surprises shift Fed path odds and risk appetite quickly (ADP already surprised to the downside). Weak labour = higher cut odds → equity/crypto friendly / dollar weaker. Strong labour = the reverse. 

3. Inflation prints (CPI and PCE / PCE core), the Fed’s preferred inflation metric is PCE; an unexpected uptick would reduce cut odds and strengthen the dollar. The Cleveland Fed and other now-casts provide real-time guidance ahead of official prints. 

4. U.S. Treasury yields / real yields (10-yr break-evens & real yield moves), crypto & gold are very sensitive to real yields; a drop in real yields is supportive, while rising real yields are headwinds. Current 10-yr yields are ~4.06–4.10%. 

5. Geopolitical or liquidity shocks (safe-haven demand can drive both gold and USD higher simultaneously), these events break standard correlations and cause cross-asset repricing.

Trading implication: create scenario plans (Fed cut confirmed vs. Fed holds) and size risk accordingly. Use option-implied vols around the FOMC/CPI prints if you want asymmetric exposure.

Short review & expectations for the Nigerian market (NGX)

Market snapshot (Dec 4, 2025): 

NGX All-Share Index has been positive year-to-date (notable sector rotation into consumer staples and some bank names), and recent sessions show modest gains and market-cap expansion. Market commentary notes daily gains driven by select stocks (Guinness, some tier-1 banks). 

FX backdrop: official NAFEM/CBN rates are around ₦1,445–₦1,452 while the parallel/black market is trading in the mid-₦1,450s–₦1,480s region depending on source, the official/parallel spread has narrowed relative to earlier months but still matters for listed corporates with FX exposure. The CBN’s policy changes (e.g., changes to cash/deposit limits earlier this year) continue to affect liquidity and real economic activity. 

Expectations & opportunities:

Short-term: NGX is sensitive to global risk appetite and local FX/fiscal headlines. A global risk-on move (weaker DXY / easier Fed) helps NGX via equity inflows and better sentiment; conversely renewed dollar strength or oil shocks can hurt sentiment. 

Sectors to watch: banks (rate/loan guidance), consumer staples/beverages (defensive, evident rotation), oil & energy suppliers (exposed to Brent), and market-infrastructure/financial services (benefit from higher local market activity). 

Risks: fiscal slippage if oil underperforms vs. budget assumptions; sudden FX shocks or renewed cash controls; and any domestic policy/tax changes that hit investor confidence. 

Practical checklist for Nigeria-focused investors: hedge material FX exposures; favour high-quality balance sheets if you expect FX or policy risk; use dividends and defensive staples to preserve capital in risk-off episodes; and keep cash ready to add to select cyclicals on corrections.

Concise trade / portfolio ideas (how to position)

• Macro directional (if Fed cut confirmed / DXY falls): long S&P (or selective cyclicals), long EUR/GBP vs USD, long BTC/ETH (staggered), and long gold on dips. Use size discipline and tight stops for crypto.
• Hedge / defensive (if Fed holds / DXY/real yields resume strength): short USD-sensitive risk via options or reduce beta; long USD, short global cyclical currencies (or buy safe-haven USD/JPY if yields diverge), increase exposure to gold only if flows indicate flight to safety. 
• Nigeria-specific: core (large banks, telcos), defensive income (dividend payers / staples), opportunistic energy services on oil recovery; manage FX risk on any dollar-linked revenues/costs. 

Key citations

1. Fed-cut probability shift & ADP labour surprise. (MarketWatch)

2. DXY levels & near-term technical zone (98.8–99.5). (Investing.com Nigeria)

3. U.S. 10-year yield (≈4.06–4.10%). (FRED)

4. Empirical work showing BTC’s weaker/unstable coherence with DXY (2025 studies). (MDPI)

5. Nigerian market & FX snapshot (NGX gains, official vs parallel Naira rates). (Nairametrics)

References

1. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/adp-says-u-s-economy-loses-jobs-for-third-time-in-four-months-fed-to-weigh-weak-labor-market-in-rate-cut-vote-0f20a193?utm_source=chatgpt.com "ADP says U.S. economy lost jobs for third time in four months. Fed to weigh weak labor market in rate-cut vote."

2. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-market-closes-on-doorstep-of-record-territory-as-investors-focus-on-bright-side-of-weak-private-sector-hiring-d541fd19?utm_source=chatgpt.com "Stock market closes on doorstep of record territory as investors focus on bright side of weak private-sector hiring"

3. https://ng.investing.com/indices/usdollar-historical-data?utm_source=chatgpt.com "US Dollar Index Historical Data"

4. https://www.forex.com/en/news-and-analysis/dxy-outlook-pricing-in-the-december-rate-cut/?utm_source=chatgpt.com "DXY Outlook: Pricing in the December Rate Cut"

5. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/boj-likely-raise-rates-december-government-tolerate-move-sources-say-2025-12-04/?utm_source=chatgpt.com "BOJ likely to raise rates in December, government to tolerate move, sources say"

6. https://www.cmegroup.com/openmarkets/metals/2025/Gold-and-the-US-Dollar-An-Evolving-Relationship.html?utm_source=chatgpt.com "Gold and the U.S. Dollar: An Evolving Relationship?"

7. https://www.reuters.com/world/india/gold-slips-investors-turn-cautious-ahead-fed-meeting-pce-data-focus-2025-12-04/?utm_source=chatgpt.com "Gold slips as investors turn cautious ahead of Fed meeting"

8. https://www.mdpi.com/1911-8074/18/5/259?utm_source=chatgpt.com "Bitcoin vs. the US Dollar: Unveiling Resilience Through ..."

9. https://www.forex.com/en/news-and-analysis/btc-usd-outlook-shaped-by-dollar-tone-2025-12-03/?utm_source=chatgpt.com "BTC/USD outlook shaped by dollar tone"

10. https://www.reuters.com/business/jp-morgan-shifts-outlook-fed-rate-cut-december-2025-11-27/?utm_source=chatgpt.com "JP Morgan shifts outlook on Fed rate cut to December"

11. https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/inflation-nowcasting?utm_source=chatgpt.com "Inflation Nowcasting"

12. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10?utm_source=chatgpt.com "Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 10-Year ... - FRED"

13. https://nairametrics.com/2025/12/04/nigerian-equities-market-gains-n252-1-billion-driven-by-guinness-tier-1-banks/?utm_source=chatgpt.com "Nigerian equities market gains N252.1 billion driven by ..."

14. https://www.cbn.gov.ng/rates/ExchRateByCurrency.html?utm_source=chatgpt.com "Exchange Rates"

15. https://africanfinancials.com/nigerian-stock-exchange-share-prices/?utm_source=chatgpt.com "Nigerian Stock Exchange Share Prices"

BTC Analysis (02/12/2025)

 Bitcoin is attempting to stabilise after a sharp 5% drop in the previous session, but the token now sits at a critical short-term junction near the $88,000 level. A decisive break above this threshold could unlock another leg higher, signalling a potential rebound in near-term momentum.

Failure to reclaim $88,000, however, would reinforce lingering selling pressure and raise the risk of a deeper pullback. Traders are watching this level closely as market sentiment remains fragile.

Market Split (Gold v BTC)

Gold Soars to 6-Week High as Bitcoin Crashes 6% in $1B Liquidation Frenzy!

Markets are telling two starkly different stories today — and your next move depends on which narrative you believe. Here’s the breakdown:

🥇GOLD IS WINNING THE SAFE-HAVEN RACE

Gold just hit a 6-week high, fueled by a weakening dollar and firming Fed cut bets.
U.S. manufacturing data confirms the slowdown, 9 straight months of contraction, cementing the case for Fed easing.
Even with Russia–Ukraine peace hopes, gold's uptrend remains intact. The path of least resistance is UP.

₿ BITCOIN GETS HAMMERED IN RISK-OFF PANIC
BTC plunged ~6% in its worst day since early November. MicroStrategy’s weaker 2025 outlook triggered a crypto-wide sentiment collapse. Nearly $1 BILLION in liquidations, leverage is being violently unwound.
This is more than a dip, it’s a liquidity shock.

💵 DOLLAR IN LIMBO — ALL EYES ON JOB DATA
USDx traded flat but the bias is BEARISH. Weak data = higher cut odds.
Tomorrow ADP Job Data is critical, it will either justify the gold rally and extend dollar weakness, or reverse the trend.

⚡ KEY TAKEAWAY
We’re witnessing a flight to traditional safety (gold) and a dump of speculative risk (crypto).
Weak economic data is rewriting the Fed story in real time.

Always checkout this space for any and everything interesting, as long as it's a trend, TRENDS always keeps you on the KNOW!

Social credit system

The concept of a social credit system has stirred conversations around the world, from Asia to Europe and beyond. It’s a digital governance model that measures how citizens behave in society and rewards or penalizes them based on their conduct. While the idea promotes accountability and social discipline, it also raises questions about privacy, fairness, and human rights. In this post, we’ll explore how it works globally, the ethical dos and don’ts, and what it would take for Nigeria to adopt a similar system.

What Is a Social Credit System? 

A social credit system is a government or institutional program that rates citizens or organizations based on their actions, financially, socially, and even morally. It uses big data, artificial intelligence, and digital monitoring to track how people pay taxes, obey laws, engage online, or contribute to their communities. The idea is simple: good behavior equals rewards, while bad behavior invites restrictions.

Global Practices.

The China’s Model: Global Practices: Lessons from Other Climes.The China’s Model: China’s National Social Credit System is the most developed. It integrates banking data, legal records, and social behavior to rate citizens. High scorers enjoy perks like easy loans and faster travel approvals, while low scorers face restrictions. However, critics argue it invades privacy and enables mass surveillance.

Western Models: Western nations don’t use full social credit systems, but they do apply partial models. The U.S. relies heavily on financial credit scores to determine creditworthiness. Platforms like Uber, Airbnb, and eBay rate users and providers based on behavior, a softer form of social scoring. In Europe, digital reputation systems encourage responsible online activity, though strict privacy laws limit abuse.

The Dos and Don’ts of a Social Credit System.

Dos: 

Ensure Transparency: People must understand how scores are calculated. 

Protect Privacy: Data protection laws must guide every step. 

Promote Fairness: Create systems for users to appeal or correct errors. Reward Positivity: Encourage community service, law-abiding behavior, and civic engagement. 

Use Ethical Tech: Build systems powered by secure and transparent AI.

Don’ts: 

Don’t Abuse Power: Never use scores for political targeting or control. 

Avoid Over-Surveillance: Too much monitoring erodes public trust. 

Don’t Ignore Cultural Realities: Systems must reflect local norms and values. 

Don’t Centralize Data Control: Independent oversight prevents corruption and misuse.

Can Nigeria Implement a Social Credit System?

Nigeria presents unique opportunities and challenges for such a system.

Challenges: 

Data Infrastructure Gaps: National ID and record systems are still incomplete. 

Low Digital Literacy: Millions of citizens lack online access or awareness. 

Privacy Risks: Weak enforcement of data protection laws may lead to misuse. 

Corruption: Unchecked political influence could erode the system’s credibility.

Opportunities: 

Accountability Culture: Linking civic duties with benefits could encourage responsible citizenship. 

Financial Inclusion: Rewarding trustworthy citizens with better loan access could boost SME’s. 

Trust in Governance: Transparent digital governance could improve state-citizen relationships. 

For Nigeria, the goal should not be to copy foreign models but to develop a home-grown, ethical frame-work, one rooted in trust, inclusion, and fairness.

Finally, a social credit system can promote discipline, transparency, and civic responsibility, but it also carries the danger of abuse. Nigeria must focus on building trust and digital literacy first, before implementing such systems. As technology reshapes governance, human rights and fairness must remain the foundation. Digital transformation should empower citizens, not control them.

call it a blood moon, super moon or blue moon, that's your opinion-here is what science says!

 

On Wednesday, humanity will be treated to a celestial trifecta: A supermoon (meaning it’s relatively close to Earth), but also simultaneously a blood moon (it’ll be orange or red), but also simultaneously a blue moon (the second full moon in one calendar month) will pass in the shadow of Earth, for a total lunar eclipse. It’s going to be righteous.
But supermoon? Blue moon? Blood moon? Yeah, let’s go ahead and pump the brakes on those terms, because the first was created by an astrologer, the second is highly subjective, and the third was only recently popularized by this-must-be-prophecy types.
First, some basics on the grand astronomical event. A total lunar eclipse is, of course, when the moon passes through the shadow of the Earth. But the Earth doesn’t actually cast one super-delineated shadow. There are two components: the
penumbra and umbra.
“The reason there are these two portions of the Earth's shadow, umbra and penumbra, is because the sun is not a single small point, it's got this big disk,” says Noah Petro, a research scientist at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center. So the penumbra is more a partial shadow, caused by a portion of the sun being blocked by the Earth.
Check out the diagram above. You can see that light sneaking through in the penumb. If you glimpse the moon when it’s there, it still won’t have the reddish or orangish or brownish hue it takes on during the so-called blood moon. “Only once it passes completely into the Earth's umbra does it turn that red color, and the reason for that is because it's very, very dim,” says Petro. “So just having any part of the moon illuminated by sunlight during an eclipse, washes out that red color that you would eventually see when it's in totality.”
That bizarre color comes from Earth itself. As sunlight passes through our atmosphere, it interacts with particles like dust, scattering certain colors. Specifically, blue, which has a shorter wavelength. Red and orange with their longer wavelengths will pass right through.
Think about the different kinds of light you see here on Earth. We get blue skies during the day because when sunlight hits us head on, the blue light scatters toward us. “When we have a sunset, the sunlight is going through a thicker portion of the Earth's atmosphere, and so more of the blue light is scattered away,” says Petro. Thus the reds and oranges of a particularly magnificent sunset.
So we’re going to have ourselves a “blood” moon. But … hold on. “I think the term more recently, really in the last decade or so, has become popular by these religious zealots that keep proposing that it's the end of time and this lunar eclipse is going to be the last one,” says Fred Espenak, scientist emeritus, also of NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center. Indeed, take a look at the Google Trends of “blood moon” below.
“The term has been around for centuries, but in obscure texts,” Espenak adds. “Even the Bible says something about a blood moon. But that's open for interpretation exactly what that means.” It could have been a lunar eclipse, sure, or some kind of phenomenon that turned the moon red. Forest fires, for instance, or a volcanic eruption that burped particulates into the atmosphere.
The recent emergence of the term probably came from the book Four Blood Moons: Something Is About to Change by the pastor John Hagee, according to Bruce McClure and Deborah Byrd over at EarthSky. Reads the book’s blurb: “Just as in biblical times, God is controlling the sun, the moon, and the stars to send our generation a signal that something big is about to happen.”
Well, no, not really. The big thing that’s about to happen is a magnificent total lunar eclipse. “I think using these terms like ‘blood moon’ just obfuscates exactly what is going on, and it just perpetuates some of the superstitions surrounding this sort of stuff,” says Espenak.
Speaking of superstitions, the next part of the celestial trifecta, the supermoon, is kinda problematic as well. “The history of the ‘supermoon’ is not of astronomy,” says Petro. “The first person to define a supermoon was an astrologer, and of course that gives us heartburn.” Specifically, an astrologer named Richard Nollelle, who claimed that the supermoon could impact the weather. Which, no.
A supermoon is, I’m sorry to say, really not all that super. (Take it from our resident physics authority Rhett Allain.) Because the moon’s orbit around our planet isn't perfectly circular, its distance from Earth varies over time, slightly changing the way you perceive its size. The apogee is its most distant point, while its perigee is its closest.
“If you compare the moon when it's at its apparent smallest, when it's at apogee, and where it is when it’s at perigee, you're talking about a maximum difference in the moon's diameter of about 14 percent,” says Espenak. “This is not something you would notice with the human eye.”
Now, the third and somewhat more innocuous bit of the celestial trifecta: the blue moon. (The origin of the phrase has too long a history to get into here, but it certainly has nothing to do with the moon turning blue.) “The term blue moon, there's two full moons in a month, really depends on where you happen to be on Planet Earth, because one guy's blue moon is another guy's not a blue moon,” says Espenak.
So, say you're in Arizona, where the first full moon was at 7 pm local time on January 1. The second will be at 6 am on January 31. Two full moons in one calendar month.
“That same full moon takes place in New Zealand on January 2 at 3 in the afternoon, and the following full moon is on February 1 at 2 am, because they're in a different time zone,” says Espenak. “The blue moon really depends on where you happen to be. I don't think it's a useful piece of information.” Really, this is a human construct. The moon didn’t invent the calendar—humans did.
So, what is going to happen on Wednesday? For sure, a total lunar eclipse, which is an incredible happening that Earthlings can observe without a single piece of equipment. It may turn the moon orange or red or even brownish, but that has nothing to do with a higher power sending a message. The moon will just so happen to be particularly close to Earth, but don’t call it a supermoon. And it will be the second moon in a calendar month, which only matters to us humans, and even then to this particular calendar we’ve invented. And certainly not to New Zealanders.
“I think we have to tread carefully but also be very clear about how we define these things—these are human constructs,” says Petro. “Something that's important to consider is that if this is getting people excited to go out and look at the moon, then hey, I think that's great.”
It’s going to be great, I can assure you. It’s an eclipse, for heaven’s sake, regardless of the semantics. And it almost certainly won’t be the end of the world.

Could all human race have stemed from one female ancestor in Africa?

Eve, in genetics, popular term for a theoretical female ancestor of all living people, also known as Mitochondrial Eve. In 1987 biochemist Allan C. Wilson proposed that all living human beings had inherited mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) from a single woman. Using statistical and computer analysis of mtDNA—which is almost always inherited by a child from the mother—from people of various ethnic groups and assuming a slow, constant rate of genetic mutation, Wilson concluded that the oldest mtDNA was African and that every person's mtDNA stemmed from one woman who lived about 200,000 years ago. (He did not suggest that this woman was the only female ancestor alive 200,000 years ago.)

Critics questioned the appropriateness of the mtDNA samples used in the study and argued that computer analysis of the data was flawed and that Wilson's conclusions were not supported by the fossil record. A further study using more diverse mtDNA samples and supporting Wilson's theory was published in 1991, but other computer analyses of mtDNA samples have indicated that several different "family trees" can be constructed from the same data and that the order in which samples are analyzed by the computer program affects the results.

A 1995 study supported the idea that modern humans originate from a single source by identifying identical stretches of DNA on the Y chromosomes of a sample of men taken from different racial and geographical groups worldwide. This study looked at the zinc finger y, or ZFY, gene, a gene that is passed only from father to son, and concluded that humans evolved from a common ancestor (i.e., a small group) around 270,000 years ago. More recently, Spencer Wells, in The Journey of Man (2002), has argued that all men are descended from a single African man who lived 60,000 years ago. Some researchers have suggested that the most common male ancestor, or Y Chromosome Adam, lived from 50,000 to 150,000 years ago, while other scientists have argued for a more distant ancestry.

Those who argue against the Eve, or "out-of-Africa," hypothesis, are led by Dr. Milford Wolpoff and support an alternate hypothesis known as "regional continuity." It contends that human evolution was a much slower process (covering a million or more years) that occurred simultaneously in many areas of the Old World after the migration of Homo erectus, the species generally recognized as immediately preceding Homo sapiens, from Africa.

WHATsapp to stop working on some smart phone on January first

You may have to buy another smartphone if your phone falls into Whatsapp’s affected phone type.

On New Year’s day, Whatsapp will cease to provide support for some smartphones. What this means is that phone users won’t be able to update to newer versions or enjoy new features of the software.

The affected smartphones include Blackberry 10, Windows Phone 8.0 or any smartphone running Blackberry OS.

In a blog post, WhatsApp wrote: “While these mobile devices have been an important part of our story, they don’t offer the kind of capabilities we need to expand our app’s features in the future.

“This was a tough decision for us to make, but the right one in order to give people better ways to keep in touch with friends, family, and loved ones using WhatsApp.

“If you use one of these affected mobile devices, we recommend upgrading to a newer Android, iPhone, or Windows Phone.”